S&P500 recorded one of the greatest years in 2019. How would it typically behave the next year?

S&P500 recorded a stellar 29.79% gain (inclusive of dividend) in the year 2019. Big question is how would the index typically behave the following year? Now that volatility has returned due to the escalation of tension between US and Iran after the US military killed Qasem Soleimani. Is it time to take profit and run away? Here are the returns for years after S&P500 returned more than 25% (with historical data dated back to 1927).

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Here are the observations:

• There are 16 occurrences with S&P500 returned more than 25% since 1927 which is 17.4% of the time.
• 6 out of 16 of the occurrences were negative which works out to be 37.5% chance of a negative following year (slightly higher than the probability of S&P500 negative year which is 32.6%).
• Average returns = 5.18% lower than the overall S&P500 average of 7.68%.
• None of the following year's return exceeds the pass year - so you can stop dreaming of another stellar 30% return in 2020.
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