S&P500 Already Gained 2.2% in the First 2 Weeks of the Year, Here is What's Gonna Happen Next

The fire raging bull continues its climb this year. While only 2 weeks have passed for the year 2020, S&P500 already rose 2.2%. Based on historical price data of S&P500 since 1927, here is typically what happened for the rest of the year.

• There were 29 occurrences since 1927 where the first 2 weeks of the year return were more than 2%
• 7% chance (27 out of 29) that that year's January return will be negative. This is obvious given the index already gained more than 2% in the first 2 weeks.
• Average return for January is 6.27%.
• 31% chance (9 out of 29) that the yearly return will be negative which is close to the overall S&P500 average of 32.5%.
• Average return for the year is 11.94% much higher than the overall average of 7.68%
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The January and yearly returns are a bit biased given that for the first 2 weeks, the return is already more than 2%. So what if you decided to invest in S&P500 after seeing more than 2% return in the first 2 weeks? Here is the outcome.

• For the next 2 weeks, you can get an average return of 1.73%. Chances of negative return is 24%.
• Average return for the year is 7.25%. The overall average is 6.75%. Chances of negative return remains the same at 31%.

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