How was May like for US stock market?
As mentioned in the last monthly report, the system MATA module has reported that the overall market has plateaued and there could be reversal coming in May. True enough, the stock market has been tumbling for the whole of May as trade talk between US and China come to a standstill and Trump imposes tariff on Mexico at the end of the month. For the month of May, Dow Jones tumbled 6.68%, S&P500 fell 6.58% and NASDAQ fell 7.93%. "Sell in May and go away" indeed!
How did the portfolio perform in May?
Thanks to MATA analysis that anticipated the market reversal in the beginning of May, the system has off loaded most of its holding going into May and was sheltered from the blood bath that ensued. Currently the portfolio is already 90% in cash. By the end of May, the system US portfolio only made a slight loss of 2.25% in May as compared to 6.58% decline for S&P500. That is one of the characteristics of a trend following system - to exit when the market starts to reverse and protect profit. If market continues to decline, losses will be kept at minimum and once the market reverses uptrend again, the huge pile of cash will be ready to be deployed. This is also one of the reason why the system beta is only half that of SPY (meaning only half as volatile as SPY!). Check out the system alpha and beta in our backtesting post.
Total return since inception is now +64.40%.
Portfolio May return: -2.25% (vs SPY -6.34%)
Portfolio YTD return: -3.13% (vs SPY +10.67%)
Total return since inception (since June 2016): +64.40% (vs SPY +39.15%)
What is going to happen in June?
Based on the system's MATA analysis, overall market is still weak. The G20 meeting between Trump and Xi could provide some hope for a market rally if things work out. As mentioned earlier, system is currently hoarding lots of cash (90% of portfolio is cash) so if the market continues to tumble, impact to the portfolio is minimised while waiting patiently for the next big uptrend wave to ride. To get weekly updates of where the market is heading and be at the right side of the market, do subscribe to our premium service. Visit our main page to find out more.
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Thanks to MATA analysis that anticipated the market reversal in the beginning of May, the system has off loaded most of its holding going into May and was sheltered from the blood bath that ensued. Currently the portfolio is already 90% in cash. By the end of May, the system US portfolio only made a slight loss of 2.25% in May as compared to 6.58% decline for S&P500. That is one of the characteristics of a trend following system - to exit when the market starts to reverse and protect profit. If market continues to decline, losses will be kept at minimum and once the market reverses uptrend again, the huge pile of cash will be ready to be deployed. This is also one of the reason why the system beta is only half that of SPY (meaning only half as volatile as SPY!). Check out the system alpha and beta in our backtesting post.
Total return since inception is now +64.40%.
Portfolio May return: -2.25% (vs SPY -6.34%)
Portfolio YTD return: -3.13% (vs SPY +10.67%)
Total return since inception (since June 2016): +64.40% (vs SPY +39.15%)
What is going to happen in June?
Based on the system's MATA analysis, overall market is still weak. The G20 meeting between Trump and Xi could provide some hope for a market rally if things work out. As mentioned earlier, system is currently hoarding lots of cash (90% of portfolio is cash) so if the market continues to tumble, impact to the portfolio is minimised while waiting patiently for the next big uptrend wave to ride. To get weekly updates of where the market is heading and be at the right side of the market, do subscribe to our premium service. Visit our main page to find out more.
Get Full Access and follow our system's quest for ABNORMAL returns
Performance Join as Member
Follow our blog on Facebook!
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