May 2019 Singapore Portfolio Performance Report. Overall = +30.26%, YTD -5.21%

How was May like for Singapore market?
Singapore stock market tumbled in May as trade talks between US and China broke down, stoking fear of trade war escalation and global recession. In addition Singapore posted disappointing April export data and was recently branded by US Treasury as a currency manipulator. For the month of May, STI fell a whopping 8.31%, erasing most of the gains it made in the past few months. "Sell in May and go away" indeed, as what the system has anticipated in last month's report.


How was the portfolio performance in May?
My system's SG portfolio performance in May was slightly better off as compared to STI given that it only fell 4.18%, all thanks to the system's sound portfolio risk management module named MATA (check out the Strategy page to find out how MATA works). Starting early May, the system has scaled down its exposure and increased its cash level to more than 50% as MATA sensed that the market is weakening. Still it is a red month for the portfolio. Still there are lots of failed break outs in this weak market. However, the system will continue to systematically and patiently test the market and when the opportune time comes, deploy the large pile of cash to ride the market reversal. After all, the model is backtested to outperform the market in the long run (check out the backtesting post)

Total return since inception fell to +30.26% still ahead of benchmark STI ETF (SGX:ES3).

May return: -4.18% (vs ES3: -7.09%)

YTD return: -5.21% (vs ES3: +3.59%)

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +30.26% (vs ES3: +22.96%) 

What's going to happen in June?
As mentioned in last month's report, the system MATA module saw the risk of market weakening as we move into May despite the big rally of STI. True enough the market reversed and it happened pretty quick. Moving into June, the overall market is still weak as the percentage of uptrending stocks continues to drop. However, the system has not deemed the market to have entered bearish mode yet unless it weakens further in June. In addition, we are also entering an oversold region so a rebound could be imminent. To know first hand where the market is heading every week, subscribe to our premium subscription package. Visit our main page to find out more.

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