Q1 2023 SG Portfolio Performance: -2.11% year-to-date, +120.61% overall

It was a bumpy ride for the STI in Q1 2023 rising to the high in January as inflation appears to be tapering but fell steadily in February and March due to the panic spurred by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. Despite that, STI managed to stage a comeback towards the end of March with a V-shaped recovery to end the month with a small gain of 0.30% as the Fed plan to trim down on the number of hikes this year. My SG portfolio year-to-date return fell 2.11% as the roller coaster ride in the overall market had my SG portfolio taking on some fake bull stocks that reversed swiftly after the system entered a position. Fortunately, the huge cash percentage helped to cushion the fall.

Overall portfolio return since 2016 currently sits at +120.61% while the STI ETF (SGX:ES3) I used for benchmarking only rose 41.06%.

I believe the overall SG market will remain pressured going into April due to the weaker global outlook (JP Morgan just downgraded all 3 local banks which are the heavy weights of the STI). On the US side, the overall market is weak but the big caps are strong (including gold and treasuries) due to capital flows from riskier stocks. And if you look at the chart, S&P is in the verge of forming a head and shoulders so the risk of another fall is increasing. It is still better to be overweight in cash for the time being and trade carefully.

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