Total Portfolio Return: US +54.81% SG +34.53%

Why has DIYQuant been Radio Silence and What's gonna Happen Next?

A summary for those short of time.
DIYQuant has been missing in action because (see below picture). After much consideration, the trading signal subscription service will be discontinued for now. I will be focusing on my quantitative strategy research. I won't be radio silent forever. You will see me in social medias and posting on my blog once I recover.


Here is the whole story. 
Many of your are probably wondering what happened to DIYQuant when he suddenly went off radar 2 months ago. (He = I) Nope, I didn't blow my portfolios and run away, Overall they are still in good profit but they have all been liquidated now. Reason being I am in no capacity to manage them, though a huge part of it is automated.



What happened?
The picture above should tell you what happened. I have been rather immobilized by the wound and have no access to my "mainframe". Currently I'm still in hospital and not sure how long more I will be here but things are progressing well. Here is a picture of me in my ward.


What is your plan for DIYQuant?
Having bedridden for the last 2 months, apart from all the medical procedures, there is nothing much I can do except eat, sleep and think. For the past few years, I have spent a lot of time researching on quantitative strategies and also attempting to build up my trading signal subscription service. It took up a lot of my free time, even eating into my sleep time. I figure it is time to choose to let go of one of them. After contemplating, with a heavy heart, I decided to let go of the subscription service.

Why choose to let go of the trading signal subscription service?
My initial goal has been to research and build a quantitative trading model that has the capability to generate a CAGR of 25% or more. The model should be dynamic meaning the strategies do not always remain the same because sometimes a strategy can become overutilised, lose its edge and should be put into the closet. And through research one can discover new profitable patterns and add it to the pool of other strategies in the model. Not an easy task.


I spent a lot of time, with my limited knowledge in marketing and branding to work on the subscription service to attract subscribers. I tried to write a post weekly and engaged readers in social medias. I developed new functionalities to add to the service (eg watchlists and MATA). I took part in a trading competition to increase my visibility and even wrote a special strategy just for it. Perhaps also was the way I add pressure to myself by showing monthly returns for the strategy. Hardly anyone does that. Sometimes the urge to compete and produce positive returns every month and having to explain the reason for not out-performing the benchmark (worse still when a stock suddenly drop 30%) added to the pressure unnecessarily - when all these energy should have been spent on researching and upgrading the system. The freed up time will also allow me to have more time with my family. In addition, it's a one man show so if I'm down like now, nobody can take over the role and subscribers will be left in limbo. These are the reasons for closing down the subscription service for now. Unless I am able to find a way to resolve the above issues (eg fully automate the service, get a helper or introduce a more stable strategy) it will remain in the closet.

Is DIYQuant going radio silence forever?
No. You will probably still see me around in social medias and my blog but may not be as consistent. I will still try to share my journey in building my quant model and it's performance. I'll probably turn my website into a journal focusing on my knowledge and journey as a retail quantitative trader. Now it's a bit overly marketing focused.


Investment is a long journey and hence requires a lot of patience. Even if your CAGR is 50%, it will take you 11 years to turn 10k to 1 million. Unless you are a rich person and you have hundreds of thousands or millions in capital. Then even a 5% return sounds a lot. But a 5% does not bring me far in my opinion (unless you have 50 years to spare, that is a different story). Of course you can go into margin but that will increase your risk and drawdown. Not to say I won't take on margin, but I will need to make sure it will be within my model's risk appetite. I don't have a million, I started with SGD40k and turned it into nearly SGD70k in 3 yrs (plus USD currency gains) and my goal is to turn this into a million in 10 years. It would need a CAGR of 30%. If things are going well, I will perhaps add funds to my initial capital along the way to shorten the time. 10 years is a long time. That is why I need to keep a journal so that if that day comes, I have my logs and my readers to vouch for it.

No comments:

Post a Comment