Year 2023 DIYQuant Portfolio Performance Report

STI index was on steroids in December, gaining a whopping 5% in 1 month and erasing all the losses for the whole year. The expectation of the US Fed’s slashing interest rates next year sends investors on a frenzy buying. YTD, the STI has gained 4.5% (including dividends). For 2023, my SG portfolio recorded a slight loss of 1.41% as some of the small caps and REITs are not performing well due to the high interest rate environment. Fortunately the high cash components have kept the portfolio cushioned from any big whipsawing which is not good for trend following strategy. Total return since inception is currently standing at +122.19%.

2023 return: -1.41% (vs ES3.SI +4.02%)
Total return since inception (June 2016) +122.19% (vs ES3.SI +45.39%)

Sadly, no multibagger stocks were caught this year. Not even one with 50% return.

Last year, my US portfolio made a double digit return while the indexes recorded double digit losses. This year, it is the opposite. My US portfolio ended with a 14% loss despite being overweight in cash for most part of the year as small caps were not performing well in a high rates environment especially during the regional banking route in the first quarter. S&P500 on the other hand gained 24% boosted by the expectation of multiple rate cuts next year. Overall, portfolio total return fell to 107.49%.

Excess cash are place in T-Bills/SSB/Fixed-Deposit. On average the return from the cash component is slightly above 3% so the actual portfolio return should be higher last 2 years which was not accounted in my reporting above.

In addition, I have been holding some physical gold bars since 2021. Those have risen nearly 14% so far, which is worrying as gold tends to outperform when the economy is struggling. I should buy more.

Moving into 2024, I expect the market to decline in the near term as the buying is currently overextended (and in low volume). Similarly for the US market. The fear and greed index is currently in the greedy region so a pull back is highly possible. We will have to wait and see if the Feds is able to pull off a soft landing.

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