Jul 2022 SG Portfolio Performance: +2.24% year-to-date, +126.88% overall.

SG market rebounded strongly in July as the market is expecting that the US rate hike will soon wind down and that inflation would be peaking or has peaked. The Feds in the end decided to raise rates by 75 basis points instead of the feared 100bps. The STI ETF SGX:ES3 posted an increase of 2.93% in July. My SG portfolio only rose 0.33% as a huge part of the portfolio was in cash. YTD return rose slightly to +2.24% which ES3 added 4.37%. Total portfolio return since inception is now +126.88% while ES3 return for the same period is +37.07%.

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Below is the chart showing the SG portfolio's monthly return since inception.

My US portfolio increased 2.44% despite being heavily in cash, while the benchmark SPY rose a whopping 9.21%, the highest increase since Nov 2020. Portfolio year-to-date return is now at -2.88% while SPY is deep in the reds at -12.61%. Total return since inception increased to +111.29% while SPY return is +119.62%.

Below is the chart showing the US portfolio's monthly return since inception.

I don’t feel that this rally is the start of a bull run. It is more of a relief rally. Interest rates are still rising. The US economy just went into a technical recession. The yield curve has flattened which signals more pain to come. The message remains the same for now, keep cash, or get trashed.

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