January 2019 US Portfolio Performance Report. Overall = +71.72%, YTD = +1.08%

US stock market experienced a sharp rebound in January after the sell-off during last December. S&P500 posted a huge gain of 7.87%, closing out the best January since 1987. Dow Jones and NASDAQ made a monthly gain of 7.17% and 9.74% respectively. The US Fed's more dovish tone since the end of last year and the expectation of a reduced number of rate hikes this year coupled with a strong job report in January rallied the market.

My US portfolio slowly loaded up on stocks in January. It did not manage to beat the benchmark this month due to the indices' sharp rebound after experiencing a bad December. The portfolio return was +1.08% in January while the benchmark SPY was +8.01%. Total return since inception is still great at +71.61%, around 2 times that of SPY (inclusive of dividend reinvestment).

Portfolio January return: +1.08%

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +71.61%

Overall market is on uptrend mode after the Fed's decision to reduce rate hike this year so the Fed's decision is something to take note of moving forward in this current market environment. My greatest concern now is the inversion of yield curve. Since last year, the yield curve has been flattening. As of this writing, the US 1-YR rate is already above the US 2-YR rate and moving towards the US 10-YR rate. And since lots of people are looking at the 10-YR/2-YR yield curve, I believe that once (or just before) the curve inverts, there will be a jolt in the stock market, a self fulfilling prophesy. Of course, I hope it won't happen but still it pays to mitigate the risk and protect yourself against it.


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