October 2018 Singapore Portfolio Performance Report. Overall = +42.24%, YTD -14.20%, Q4 -8.15%

How was October like for Singapore market?
October was a month of decline. STI fell a significant 7.31% for the month impacted by the sell-of in US market due to concerns of rising treasury yield and the trade war effect and strong dollar are starting to hurt earnings of companies with international exposure.

How was the portfolio performance in September?

PS: From this month onward I will be reverting to using absolute return instead of time weighted return. Reason being time weighted return only captures the invested component. It does not capture the cash component which is a big part of the portfolio in times of market decline. Another reason is to be consistent with the calculation of the US portfolio returns.

My SG portfolio experienced one of the worst month so far since the launch of the system. The portfolio return dropped 8.15%. The system was caught in the sell off of 2 oil and gas stocks that plummeted more then 20%. Fortunately, position sizing protected the portfolio as each stock only constitute about 12% of the portfolio

Q4 return: -8.15%.

YTD return: -14.20% (ES3 YTD: -5.34%)

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +42.24%.

Despite a pretty awful month that pulled the YTD's return south, the overall return of the portfolio is still great as compared to ES3. By keeping a large portion of cash during bad market, the system managed to keep losses controlled and protected profits gained in the last 2 years. By the way, since this is long only strategy. it is somewhat expected that returns will be negative during market decline. When the bull market returns, the gain will not only be able to cover the losses experienced so far this year but also drive returns higher.

What's going to happen in November?
November would be another month of uncertainties. With the US mid term election being held next week and the G20 summit where Trump is expected to discuss with Xi about the trade war, the stock market could react 'violently' depending on the outcome of these events. Currently SG market is still weak but I am seeing signs that the decline is taking a breather after this week rebound. I would not jump the gun and be overly eager to load up on stocks now. For now, I can only hope things will continue to get better until the end of the year.

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