Q1 2022 SG Portfolio Performance: +2.69% year-to-date, +125.19% overall

For the first quarter, STI performed pretty well with stellar return of more than 8% in three month something that is worth cheering by Singapore investors. Local bank stocks benefited from the rising interest rate. Covid restrictions begin to ease as number of infections declined. Despite the escalation in Ukraine war which weakened the index, it managed to stage a comeback late in March to close above 3400.

For Q1 2022, my SG portfolio made a modest gain of +2.69% while ES3 which is the STI ETF I used for benchmarking rose 8.83% for Q1. Total return inception rose to +125.19% while ES3 return is +42.09%.

Below is the chart showing the SG portfolio's monthly return since inception.

On the US side, my portfolio managed to remain in profit for Q1 despite the weakness in the overall market. In fact for the month of March, the portfolio return was a whopping +10.41%! The system made several profitable trades in the oil and gas sector riding along with the inflated oil prices due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Portfolio return for Q1 2022 is +4.39% while SPY which is the benchmark I used fell 4.34%. Total return since inception rose to +122.71%while SPY return is +140.40% for the same period.

Below is the chart showing the US portfolio's monthly return since inception.

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It looks like there is a mini bull run happening in SG market as bank stocks are benefiting from the rising interest rate and Singapore is easing some of the COVID restrictions. Ukraine war does not seem to have much impact. I don't think the bull run will last for long.

The 2yr to 10 yr yield curve has just inverted, signalling a possible recession in the near future. Though the one that I prefer to look at is 1yr to 10 yr which seems more accurate, I believe it will invert soon as well. It does not mean that recession follows immediately after the inversion, but it is likely to happen within the next 1.5 years. Now, all lies on how the Fed plays out its quantitative tightening in the next 1-2 years to fight inflation. The Fed has already warned that they will turn more hawkish if inflation becomes hotter than expected. High interest rates are not good for the stock market. Do trade with care.

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