August 2018 Singapore Portfolio Performance Report. Overall = +103.24%, YTD +8.99%, Q3 +10.92%

How was August like?
August was not a great month for Singapore market. After the short little rally towards National Day, most of the trading days for the rest of the month ended in reds. For the month of August, STI suffered a 3.20% loss. The escalation of trade war between US and China, the exodus of funds from emerging market back to US and the currency rout that is starting to spread across some emerging market such as Argentina, Turkey and Indonesia are some factors contributing to the decline in prices.

How was the portfolio performance in August?
For the month of August, my Singapore portfolio also declined, with the total return dropped by 3.13%. It is mostly attributed to the fall of Japfa from its recent high of 0.75. And the rise of a few other stocks in the portfolio somewhat compensated Japfa's decline. Hence the overall portfolio decline for the month was only 3.13%. Despite that it is still a win against STI though by a small margin. And the returns for Q3 is still good so far.

Portfolio time weighted return for Q3 2018 is +10.92%.

Year-to-date time weighted return is +8.99% while ES3 (STI ETF) reduced to -2.61% for the year.

Overall time weighted return since inception (from June 2016) mantained above 100% at +103.24%. That is the first time the portfolio's total return is able to maintain above 100% for 2 consecutive months.

Performance Chart

screenshot taken from stocks.cafe

Time Weighted Returns by year

screenshot taken from stocks.cafe

What's going to happen in September?
The global trade tension will continue to put pressure on the SG market. Furthermore, MAS recently announced that Singapore bank lending cools in July with first month-on-month decline since January, which could be another factor putting pressure on prices (After all STI is overweight with bank stocks). In addtion, STI is currently hopping dangerously above the support line as seen in below chart. The market could whipsaw for a while or even decline.

If you have noticed, the system has no stock in the watchlist for this week! This means no new stocks are breaking out which could spell further trouble to come. I am not saying we should sell everything but as what I've been advising, make sure to apply proper risk management, maintain a higher level of cash, go for defensive stocks and have a trading plan in place, which include both entry AND exit plan.

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